YourDenverMortgageGuy

Here is the latest news on Your Denver Mortgage from Your Denver Mortgage Guy, Dave Beckmann

When it comes to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.

The businesses that produce and service the everyday functions of society flounder in a sea of uncertainty and a desert of capital illiquidity. Within this context, the only realistic way to examine the prospects for 2012, must factor in the political component. Yet the promoters of the corporatist system build up false hope, while fudging the numbers.

Looking ahead to 2012, the Livingston survey forecasters “see the growth rate of economic output slowing to 2.1 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2012, and they predict that it will then increase to 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the second half of the year.” The economists also expect “a slow recovery in the labor market, with the unemployment rate at 9.0 percent in December 2011 and at 8.9 percent in June 2012.”

The partisan formula of an incumbent to buy off voters with an easy money injection into the economy, will not work this time. Yes, the dependency voters may cast their ballot for a second Obama term, but the engine of economic growth, namely; small business is slated for a fire sale under the corporatist prototype of the globalist economy.

Implementing constructive government policies that would unleash merchant small business will not happen in 2012 for a very simple reason. The goal of Wall Street and their handpicked political operatives want private independent enterprises to die on the vine. Social discontent grows daily because the public no longer believes that the political class can provide any viable economic future for the average family. Unfortunately, this attitude misses the mark. Government never produces prosperity. Nevertheless, most people who do voter want to trust in their elected officials. Maybe this fact explains why so many Americans refuse to vote anymore.

The break, with the nostalgia, that the next generation will have it better than the previous one is now shared by even the most optimistic romantic. This election cycle forecasts that economic salvation is illusory. Stock markets may rise, but inflation in stable goods is here to stay. Your money buys less so that the banks can speculate. Government policies and fiscal manipulation, by design, results in dire prospects for 2012. Remember this fact when you vote next November.

Information for this report was provided by James Hall of Infowars.com

If your looking for a Denver Mortgage, contact Your Denver Mortgage Guy, Dave Beckmann, at 720-435-4022

Here is the latest news from Your Denver Mortgage Guy, Dave Beckmann:

The economy has suffered significantly in the past four years. This year we have seen a series of challenges, some man-made and some a present from nature. Now that the commotion over the budget struggle and S&P downgrade has quieted down, one would have expected that the markets would have quieted down as well. And we did have three relatively quiet days to start the week. That all went out the window on Thursday as massive volatility to the downside returned. The triggers? Worries over the European debt crisis seem to crop up every other day and the economic news released at home this week was weak. In perspective it was not that weak, as existing home sales fell, but they still were 20% above the level of last July and weekly jobless claims were up, but only slightly. There was definitely a significant reaction, or perhaps over-reaction, to the numbers.

Are the markets telling us that we are heading into a recession? Or are they just adjusting for the slowdown that has already occurred? This is impossible to determine right now, however, one thing we know is that the debt debate did not help as Americans were not in the mood to spend on big ticket items in July while there was a threat of a government shutdown. Right now we have an increased crisis of confidence. The markets need to gain confidence and so do consumers. Meanwhile, rates continue to hit record lows. Lower rates as well as lower oil prices will boast consumer spending. Theoretically, that could turn into the good news we are looking for. Consumers know a good deal when they see one and right now they are flooding the offices of lenders to refinance. We are keeping our warning in place because we know when and if this “good news” arises and confidence ticks up–the sale on car and home financing may be over.

Here is the latest in Denver Mortgage Rates from Your Denver Mortgage Guy:

WOW is about the only way to describe the last week in the mortgage and bond markets.  Followed by a US credit downgrade by S&P, FOMC shocking the markets with the bold statement of keeping rates low until 2013, talks of QE3, continued European banking concerns, strong demand for treasury auctions, terrible consumer sentiment data, and an overall dismal outlook for the US economy, interest rates plunge to record lows.  Treasury yields dropped 34 basis points to end the week around 2.24% on the benchmark 10yr notes, and mortgage rates dropped another 25 basis points. 

The market’s focus to begin the week was domestic after Standard & Poor’s became the first agency to downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the United States. The downgrade over the previous weekend from AAA to AA+ on political risks and the country’s rising debt burden caused U.S. equity markets to nosedive Monday. The S&P 500 lost 6.7%.  The U.S. major averages ended the week with two positive sessions, the first back-to-back gains since the recent correction began. That helped minimize the weekly decline following Monday’s plunge and Wednesday’s extension lower.

The FOMC responded on Tuesday when it attached a time frame to its federal funds target for the first time, calling for exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2013.  Treasury yields did not spike following the S&P downgrade, and then surged to record lows on Tuesday (10-year 2.03%) after the FOMC made monetary policy more accommodative for a longer-than-expected period.

Treasury auctions were also in focus this week, with mixed results.  Following fairly solid support for the 3-year sale on Tuesday, the 10-year auction experienced strong demand on Wednesday, only to have the 30-year sale see exceptionally low demand on Thursday.

Stocks extended their recent declines Wednesday on the European banking concerns, only to regain that sharp sell-off on Thursday.

Initial jobless claims hung around 400,000 for a third straight week, suggesting nonfarm payrolls could exceed 100,000 again in August, while retail sales was a second positive report for July.  Somewhat offsetting that data was Michigan sentiment. The first economic data point for August plunged to 54.9, the lowest level since April 1980, though it is not surprising when one considers the survey was conducted during the debt ceiling fiasco.

The Week Ahead:

Volatility, volatility, volatility is likely the story again in the week ahead.  This week is a much shorter economic calendar that centers around the US housing market and inflation data, however a light calendar won’t necessarily mean a quiet market.   But the focus will again be on Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, and traders are awaiting the Tuesday meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The focus will continue to be on measures it takes to ring fence problems to Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

The fears of a double dip recession have been weighing on markets, and the Fed this past week, helped stoke markets concerns that the economy will crawl along for a very long time.  The Fed also signaled it was considering its options, immediately prompting market speculation that another quantitative easing program is in the offing. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month, and it was there last year that he first discussed the Treasury securities purchase program that became known as QE2.
As far as interest rates go, given the volatility of the last week and a half, I could see another run to the 2 percent level, and we could also see a backup to 2.50.   

Economic Calendar:

Monday, August 15th

8:30ET  Emprire Manufacturing  

9:00ET  Net Long Term TIC Flows

10:00ET NAHB Housing Index

Tuesday, August 16th

8:30ET  Housing Starts/Building Permits

8:30ET  Import/Export Prices

9:15ET  Industrial Prod/Capacity Util

Wednesday, August 17th

7:00ET    MBA Mortgage Applications 

8:30ET   PPI

Thursday, August 18th

8:30ET   Weekly Jobless Claims   420k

8:30ET   CPI 

10:00ET  Existing Home Sales

10:00ET   Leading Indicators

10:00ET  Philly Fed

Friday, August 19th

None

If you need more information on mortgage rates to purchase or refinance a home, call Your Denver Mortgage Guy, Dave Beckmann, at 720-435-4022  or email at dave@davebeckmann.com

More Americans are heading to the South and West, according to the 2010 U.S. Census. The latest census data shows the largest population growth in the last decade occurred in areas of the South and West, as Northeast and Midwest residents continued to head toward warmer and less expensive Sun Belt hot-spots. Populations in the South and West grew 14.3 percent and 13.8 percent, respectively, from 2000 to 2010, while Northeast and Midwest areas grew by only 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent, according to the Census Bureau. As such, the decade’s hottest housing markets also had the most rapid population growth, including Nevada (35.1 percent growth), Arizona (24.6 percent), and Florida (17.6 percent). However, demographic factors likely will have less of an impact as it once did in the short-term in driving the housing market and prices, experts say. Paul Bishop, vice president for research at the National Association of REALTORS®, says he expects much of the short-term housing activity to be mostly centered on low and high ends of the market, rather than driven by merely migration patterns. He says investors likely will continue to target highly discounted homes in growing Sun Belt cities as well as in shrinking Rust Belt areas. He also anticipates an increase in sales of expensive homes. “The stock market has been doing pretty well, which benefits the wealthy,” Bishop told Investor’s Business Daily. “And the wealthy can withstand bad economic times better than others.” Source: Investor’s Business Daily

Need to give buyers some extra incentive to choose your listing over the large inventories of others? Sure, price will get their attention, but some incentives may be the extra motivation needed to get the deal to the closing table. Here is one extra that is growing in real estate transactions. Home warranties. Warranties can cover the repair or replacement of many home system appliances and components, can provide buyers with some extra confidence when purchasing a home. “Home warranties are appealing to buyers because they cover appliances and system components that a new home owner has no familiarity with,” says Lelia Chapman, vice president of field sales for American Home Shield. “Sellers benefit from offering a home warranty because it sets the home apart from the rest of the competition in today’s saturated market, often leading to faster sales at better prices.” Source: AOL Real Estate News

If you need a Denver Mortgage, jumbo loan, FHA, FHA 203K, VA, or refinance, Contact Dave Beckmann at 720-435-4022 or email me @ www.yourdenvermortgageguy.com.  I can help you decide what loan program is best for you and your situation.

In Part One of this series we talked about the importance of call reluctance and the fact that everyone has some form of call reluctance that can hurt their income—or even worse cause failure in sales and business. Don’t think you are immune because you are experienced  in sales. Experience causes prejudices as we experience failures and reluctance can actually get worse as our career progresses.  For example, had a bad experience with a relative? Then don’t call on family!

The second step of the process is to identify what type of call reluctance is affecting you.  Not only do we all have call reluctance, but we all have different forms. Knowing what we are dealing with makes it easier to come up with solutions. In their landmark book, Earning What You’re Worth: The Psychology of Call Reluctance, by George W. Dudley and Shannon L. Goodson, 12 types were identified:

Doomsayer™ These people   always see the worst case scenario. They spend an enormous amount of time protecting themselves against fictional dangers. “There is no point in my calling on that customer.”

Over-Preparer™ These people are afraid of appearing as if they do not know enough or are ill prepared. So they spend a great deal of time getting ready and will sacrifice opportunities in favor of preparation, such as training and studying.

Hyper-Pro™ These people are over-concerned with projecting the right look or creating the right impressions. For them, looking right is often more important than doing right. They routinely avoid doing things they consider beneath them even if they are proven winners.

Stage Fright™ People with Stage Fright avoid group selling situations. Two or more people can comprise a group and they become increasingly uncomfortable and will even freeze up in some cases.

Role Rejection™ These are people who are secretly ashamed of being in sales. Even though they have intellectually bought into selling as a worthwhile career, they still harbor emotional doubts about its worth.  “I’m more of an advisor.”

Yielder™  These people are afraid of inciting conflict or imposing on others. They yield their own right of way to others and complain that they are taken advantage of. They regularly default many pieces of business to their peers and competitors. “When you’re ready to buy, just call me.”

Social Self-Consciousness™ People are easily intimidated by others they consider better than themselves because of such things as wealth, power, position or a better education. They routinely avoid calling on these people.

Separationist™ People avoid doing business with their friends. Believing that business and friendship don’t mix, they refuse to call on friends for business or even help in finding new business. Repeat business from a client (now a friend) can be extremely difficult for them.

Emotionally Un-emancipated™ Rule their families out as possible sources of new business or referrals.

Referral Aversion™ Although they know how to get referrals, these people tend to postpone asking for them—preferring to wait for a better time which never seems to come. Companies often misdiagnose this as a lack of training and spend enormous amounts of money teaching how to ask for referrals. They already know how. They are emotionally unable to.

Tele-phobia™ Inhibits the use of the telephone when it comes to prospecting only. All other uses are allowed. “I prefer dealing with people face-to-face. That way I can see their  expressions.

”Oppositional Reflex™ These are people who reflexively oppose. They tend to act in opposites even when to do so is not in their best interests. They critique often and become very defensive when challenged. Sales people with this type tend to fight with customers.

We have added three more types: Techno-Phobia (those who avoid technology), Lost in Technology (those who can email but can’t call) and Truth-Phobia. If you read all of these types and don’t admit you are influenced by more than one, you have Truth-Phobia.  You first must admit your short-coming before you conquer such. Next month we will talk about conquering reluctance and increasing your income…q

Have you ever wondered why some seemingly “barely competent” people make a great living in sales while others who seem to be near genius level fall flat on their face? So many go into sales thinking, if this guy can do it, I can run circles around him.  There are many relevant explanations for this phenomenon.

Perhaps the “smart” person does not have good people skills or perhaps they don’t work hard enough. However, there are plenty of smart people who work hard and still don’t succeed in sales.  The reason? Most often is because they are overcome with call reluctance.  Call reluctance is the road-block that keeps many from succeeding in sales.  If call reluctance is hurting you—then it is time you do some-thing about it.

First, understand that everyone has some sort of call reluctance. We all find reasons not to make a particular call.  For some, this is a momentary lapse which they overcome. For others, it is a daily battle, causing each day to pass without true productivity.  Therefore, the question is not do you have call reluctance, but is your call reluctance strong enough to keep you from performing the way you desire?  In other words, all sales people will be able to benefit from the advice contained within this article.

Here is the good news. Call reluctance can be overcome. For some it will take hard work. But if you are willing to put in the time and effort, you can be successful.  The first step is recognizing that you have call reluctance.  There is no way that you can overcome an obstacle unless you recognize that this obstacle exists.  The key here is being honest with yourself.  Is your call reluctance negatively affecting your results?

If  you are truly not sure of the answer, you must look for signs of call reluctance lurking like a vulture over your objectives—

- At the end of the day, did you find that you did not get to your calls as you took care of “administrative functions” such as organizing or answering mundane emails?

- Do you purchase leads or make cold calls instead of talking to previous customers or others with whom you  have close relationships?

- Are you consumed with planning, taking classes or   creating an image, to the detriment of not getting through your marketing objectives?

- Do you make “excuses” as to why you do not make certain calls or undertake particular marketing activities? For example, do you predispose a negative result of a call? Do you ever think like this—If I call, they may get mad.

These “clues” are pretty easy to see—if you are not entranced in your everyday life. It is always harder to see the “forest from the trees.”  If you have a problem seeing the forest—you need to ask others around you who can view your situation from another vantage point.

It is also important to understand that there are different forms of call reluctance. Some are reluctant to call those with whom  they are close while others are reluctant to use the phone but have no problem meeting people face-to-face. Obviously, nailing down your specific reluctances will make it easier to fashion a solution.

The next step in the process would be to go deeper and more specific within the situation that has affected your performance.  It is not enough to say, I am not comfortable calling people over the phone.  Are you uncomfortable calling in all situations?  Is it cold calling  you are uncomfortable with or warm calling? Do you have a problem calling present customers who are “in process” to give them updates, or is it just sales situations? Are you more comfortable with emails because you won’t necessarily hear or see the response?

Once you have nailed down the fact that you have call reluctance which is impeding your results, you know what specific reluctances are most profound in your situation and you have drilled down to the details of your uncomfortable feelings, now you are ready to fashion some solutions. Next month we will continue with ideas for you to overcome your reluctance. There are no magical solutions. Solutions will require work.  However, you will find many times that the solutions are far less severe than the fears that have been holding you back from making simple calls…

Here is the latest market news from YourDenverMortgageGuy, Dave Beckmann.  If you need a Denver Mortgage, call me today at 720-435-4022

On the same day last week, President Obama and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke both expressed concern regarding the “soft patch” in the economy. On the bright side, both expressed confidence that this slowdown would be temporary and it would not lead to a “double-dip” recession. After all, if our leaders can’t be confident, how can we be expected to be confident? And this is certainly a crisis of confidence. Two years ago, we explained that we would not return to prosperity without confidence returning. We need the consumer to be confident because consumers that are fearful of losing their jobs don’t purchase cars or houses. We need the banks to be confident enough to take risks to back consumers who want to purchase. Confidence in the whole system disappeared a few years ago and it is slowly coming back, but every time there is a pause in the recovery we can see that confidence has not arrived to where it needs to be.

To be more exact, this is the third pause in the economic recovery. Each pause brings a dip in confidence. This is the time in which we need the leaders to step up. Not only our elected leaders, but the private sector must lead the way as well. That means companies must continue to hire as they have been planning and not be worried that the economy will stall in the long run. Those hires will keep the economy from stalling. Investors are leading the way in the housing sector. They recognize what a bargain houses are today–the most affordable they have been in a generation. Investors are confident housing will rebound and as it does, rents are going up. That makes an investment property a great bet. Purchases by investors have soared and many are using cash instead of financing to effect the transactions. If investors see the light–should not banks step forward and see the opportunity to loan consumers the money they need to purchase these bargains? Confidence is the only missing ingredient today and when we get it back–watch out!